With the 2025 Belmont Stakes set to take place at Saratoga Race Course for the second consecutive year, bettors and enthusiasts alike must adapt to the unique characteristics of this historic venue. The shift from Belmont Park's traditional 1½-mile distance to Saratoga's 1¼-mile track introduces new dynamics that can significantly influence race outcomes. Understanding these nuances is crucial for making informed wagering decisions.
Running Styles That Win at Saratoga
Since 2000, 34 dirt races have been run at Saratoga's 1¼-mile distance. These races reveal clear trends about which running styles are most successful.
The best style by far is stalking—horses that run 1 to 4 lengths behind the leaders early. These horses have won 50% of the races (17 out of 34). Saratoga’s tight turns and shorter stretches favor horses that stay near the pace and move around the final turn.
Speed horses, or front-runners within a length of the lead, also do well, winning 38.2% of the time (13 races). However, they need a good post position—especially an inside draw—to hold the lead without running too wide.
The least successful style is deep closers—horses that start more than 4 lengths back. They’ve won only 4 races, just 11.8%. The track's layout makes it challenging for them to catch up in time. These running style patterns are worth keeping in mind for those interested in How to bet on Belmont Stakes.
Successful Post Positions
Horses breaking from posts 1–3 have a strong edge, winning 18 of 34 races (52.9%). This inside draw is especially key for speed horses—10 of 13 front-running winners came from these spots, thanks to the ground-saving position into the first turn.
Middle posts (4–6) are competitive, too, producing 11 winners (32.3%), especially for stalkers or sharp breakers.
The real challenge comes from outside posts, 7 and higher. Horses starting from these gates have only won 5 races, just 14.7% of the total. Speed horses from the outside often lose ground or get parked wide early, while closers from out there typically have too much to do and not enough stretch to do it.
Trainer and Jockey Success at Saratoga
Some trainers and jockeys have a strong track record at Saratoga, making them essential to watch when betting on the Belmont Stakes. Todd Pletcher and Chad Brown are two of the most successful trainers at the Spa. Pletcher is especially good with dirt route horses, which makes his entries tough to beat in races like the Belmont. Brown is best known for turf runners but also trains quality dirt horses.
Irad Ortiz Jr., Jose Ortiz, and Flavien Prat stand out among jockeys. Irad is especially effective with horses that stay close to the lead, thanks to his aggressive style, which works well at Saratoga. Jose consistently performs in big races, and Prat is known for his smart, well-timed rides.
Horses trained by these top names and ridden by these leading jockeys often run better than their odds suggest. Betting on these proven connections can give you an edge, especially in a deep field like the Belmont Stakes.
Track Conditions and Weather
The weather has often impacted races at Saratoga, and it could again be for the 2025 Belmont Stakes. The forecast for June 6 calls for possible thunderstorms, raising the chance of a wet track.
Over the past decade, rain has disrupted racing at the Spa more than once. In 2024, a tropical storm canceled a full race card, and 2016 thunderstorms forced early cancellations. Wet tracks often shift race dynamics, favoring speed horses while making it harder for closers to catch up. Horses with good past performances in the slop—known as “mudders”—can also offer betting value.
With rain in the forecast, bettors should keep an eye on conditions. A sloppy track could give an edge to sure runners and shake up expected results. Adjusting your picks based on weather could be the key to winning bets.
Down the Stretch
The trends are clear: stalkers and speed horses drawn inside, especially in posts 1–3, have the best shot at 1¼ miles. Deep closers struggle at Saratoga, and rain could shake things up—wet tracks tend to favor front-runners and proven “mudders.” To win your bets, focus on horses with the right style, post, and past performance in slop. Trust experienced trainers and jockeys, and watch the weather and odds closely leading up to race time.
